Google mobility data full#
Google mobility data code#
Google mobility data series#

The effective rate of reproduction has significantly declined in states with significant initial outbreak. Thus, stringent adherence to social distancing in states such as Quintana Roo, Morelos, and Baja California Sur will likely lead to elimination of COVID-19 transmission quicker than in Jalisco, Sonora, and Queretaro.Ģ. Much evidence suggests that pushing the reproduction number below 2 can be done with effective social distancing. While this provides a clear picture on where Mexico stands nationally, there are important differences between the states at the top and bottom of this graph. Our model suggests a low degree of variance in the current rate of reproduction across Mexican states: all except Quintana Roo have the upper and lower bounds of their current reproduction rate fall between 1 and 2. Given that many of these estimates were done before any social distancing measures had been put in place, they provide a reasonable baseline estimate of COVID-19’s transmission under normal circumstances. Estimates of the basic reproduction number of coronavirus in the first outbreaks of Wuhan, Italy, South Korea, and other initial epicenters suggest that R0 is between 2 and 3. A reproduction number below 1 (one case is infecting on average less than one person) means that the virus will not spread. The rate of reproduction can be thought of as the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible. The current rate of reproduction (R0) is between 1 and 2 for all Mexican states. The dashboard also includes descriptive statistics on COVID-19 for each state and a summary of our prior analysis on hospital occupancy rates.ġ.

Google mobility data full#

The link to the full forecast can be found here, along with the complete methodology.

It utilizes data on the daily incidence of infected, deaths, and individual movement from the Google Mobility Report. We use a Bayesian hierarchical model developed by the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team for estimating the rate of transmission at the subnational level in Brazil. In this article, we provide an overview of our statistical model on the infection, death, and reproduction rates at the subnational level. Our past articles have focused on scenario forecasting of hospital occupancy rates and the challenges of modeling infection rates in Mexico. While the United States’ daily incidence of deaths slowly declines, Mexico reported its largest daily incidence yet with 1,092 deaths on June 4.Īs the country begins to reopen certain parts of the economy and relaxing social distancing measures, we ask: What is the state of the spread of COVID-19 at the subnational level and which areas are at greatest risk?

Google mobility data code#

The analysis will be updated as we receive additional data and the code for all related analysis will be made available shortly.įor the past two months, COVID-19 has made its way beyond the borders of the United States and into other countries of the Americas, namely the second and third largest countries of the region: Brazil and Mexico.

Google mobility data series#

This analysis is Part 6 of a series on COVID-19, with a specific focus on Mexico.